World Population Set To Decline For The First Time In Centuries Says Study

沈秋萍

華盛頓大學研究人員發表在《柳葉刀》的研究報告預測，全球人口將在2064年達到頂峰，約為97.億，2100年將降至約88億。研究人員稱，這將是第一次由生育率下降而導致的全球人口下降。

According to a new study published in the Lancetjour- nal， the world population will decline for the first time in the next century.

The world’s population is currently estimated to be at 7.8 billion people. According to the estimate， the global pop- ulation would peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064. Then it will fall to 8.79 billion in 2100.

Due to low birth rates and aging populations， up to 23 countries， including Japan， Thailand， Italy， Spain， Portugal， South Korea， and others， might see their populations fall by more than 50%.

China is the world’s most populated country. But it will see its population drop from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

The study noted the global trend of population decline. But it also predicted that some sections of the world would witness an increase in population.

This encompasses North Africa， the Middle East， and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is likely to triple in population from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 over the century.

According to the? study， the population? of India， the world’s? second- most populous? country， will be? approxi- mately 1.09 billion in 2100.

發表在《柳葉刀》雜志上的一項新研究稱，下個世紀全球人口將首次下降。

目前，全球人口預計為78億。據估計，全球人口將在2064年達到峰值，約為97億。然后在2100年下降到87.9億。

由于低出生率和人口老齡化，包括日本、泰國、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、韓國等在內的多達23個國家的人口可能會下降50%以上。

中國是目前世界上人口最多的國家，但到2100年，中國的人口將從2017年的14億下降到7.32億。

這項研究指出了全球人口下降的趨勢，也預測世界某些地區將出現人口增長。

人口增長地區包括北非、中東和撒哈拉以南非洲。在本世紀內，這些地區的人口可能會從2017年的10.3億增加到2100年的30.7億。

該研究指出，2100年，世界第二人口大國印度的人口將為10.9億左右。

World population decline driven by fertility decline.

Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the? Institute? for? Health? Metrics? and? Evaluation （IHME）， Stein? Emil? Vollset，? told? IFLScience， “The? last? time? that global population declined was in the mid 14th century， due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct， it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline， as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”

The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime. The worldwide total fertility rate is likely to steadily drop， from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. It is significantly below the minimum rate （2.1 live births per woman） necessary to maintain population levels， he added.

生育率下降導致全球人口下降。

該研究主要作者、華盛頓大學健康指標與評估研究所全球健康教授斯坦因·埃米爾·沃爾賽特告訴IFLScience 網站：“全球人口上一次下降是在14世紀中葉，是黑死病導致的。如果我們的預測正確，這將是第一次由生育率下降而導致人口下降，而不是由于疫情或饑荒等原因?！?/p>

生育率是女性一生中平均生育子女的數量。全球總生育率可能會穩步下降，從2017年的2.37下降到2100年的1.66。這遠低于維持人口水平所需的最低生育率（平均每位女性2.1的生育率）。